Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5156c92acc26df6cf0c04d23477c904d1004cc799e79f5e9eeaacd80cb370d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 12c | 630.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 16c | 510$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 462.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 436.4$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 391.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 24c | 303.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 292$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 18c | 257.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 17c | 252.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 11c | 245.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 5c | 210.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 196.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 18c | 174.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 14c | 171.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 147.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 17c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 134.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 126.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 17c | 122.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 25c | 122.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 121.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 16c | 119.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 118.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 111.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 16c | 108.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 18c | 106.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…c69dbacked No | 76c | 105.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 23c | 103.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 100.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…5d3ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 95.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 94.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 94.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 24c | 92.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 24c | 87.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 81.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 74.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 73.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 70.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 31c | 64.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 63.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 16c | 62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 59.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 58.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 27c | 57.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 18c | 57.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 55.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 53.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 51.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf589…eacfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…5a48backed Yes | 34c | 47.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 42.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 40.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 32.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c42…576abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…e4dcbacked No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.