Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6aec0dff9528f9b755f2b29e8ec817f710f40e5ac392b67eaa1be454afb99ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37a1…6691backed No | 0c | 4,750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed No | 1c | 4,367$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 6c | 913.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 8c | 847.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 35c | 629.64$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.39 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 34c | 564.1$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 12c | 435.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 27c | 424.18$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 327.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 62c | 320.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 293.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked No | 8c | 240.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 57c | 237.06$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 234.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.38 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 38c | 232.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 231.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 7c | 228.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 9c | 217.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 40c | 212.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 14c | 210.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 206.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 6c | 205.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…9facbacked No | 6c | 184.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 40c | 184.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 179.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 177.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 11c | 168.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 14c | 165.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 12c | 160.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 11c | 147.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 146.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 31c | 142.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 141.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 140.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 140.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed No | 7c | 136.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 32c | 135.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 66c | 134.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 123.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 121.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 119.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 118.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 23c | 113.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 113.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 43c | 109$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 9c | 106.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…5d3ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf589…eacfbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 60c | 94.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed No | 41c | 70.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 60c | 70.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed Yes | 37c | 65.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 63.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 55c | 59.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 59.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 56.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 39c | 53.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 52.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 58c | 50.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…308fbacked No | 40c | 50.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 59c | 49.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 48.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 58c | 45.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 44.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 67c | 40.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 50c | 37.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 33c | 36.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 36.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 37c | 36.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 42c | 35.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 58c | 34.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 33.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 59c | 32.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 32.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 61c | 29.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 70c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 59c | 27.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 58c | 27.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.