Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x612449278e9ab3055b005e6fd416898b37132d2fef9cbdb823289654f86ce37b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 3c | 842.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 39c | 660.49$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.93 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 74c | 608$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 32c | 600.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 46c | 595.01$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.55 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 30c | 479.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 410.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 27c | 374.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 6c | 339.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 320.23$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 257.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 39c | 253.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 233.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 221.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 216.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 37c | 209.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 142.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 134.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 128.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 121.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 95.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 23c | 95.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 89.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 82.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 81.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 39c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 80.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 37c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 72.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 40c | 62.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 66c | 60.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 34c | 59.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 57.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 57.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 76c | 57.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 27c | 53.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 66c | 53.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 53.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 23c | 51.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 38c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 31c | 41.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…d323backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 40c | 36.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 66c | 36.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 61c | 34.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 61c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 37c | 28.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…056cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 74c | 24.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 73c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.