Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40e68a9af5cc1625ff262958ad847c634fb47f1c5d8610d7fa5e077d316f85e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 13c | 1,300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.29 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 787.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 18c | 723.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.39 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 703.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.66 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 527.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.11 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 78c | 435$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.48 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 401.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 10c | 386.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.95 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 356.01$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 6c | 335.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.91 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 8c | 308.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.34 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 293.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 280.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 23c | 275.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.76 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 265.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 260.08$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 16c | 244.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 26c | 240.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.49 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 10c | 222.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.34 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 21c | 220.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 16c | 219.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 11c | 214$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 7c | 207.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…5a48backed Yes | 15c | 200.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 196.56$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 39c | 194.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 190.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 10c | 190.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 22c | 153.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 10c | 151.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 9c | 150.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 24c | 145.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 29c | 142.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 140.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 9c | 139.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 27c | 131.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 128.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 126.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 12c | 123.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 120.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 119.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 24c | 115.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 113.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 104.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 28c | 86.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 18c | 83.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 37c | 81.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 29c | 78.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 19c | 78.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 73.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 25c | 65.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 17c | 64.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 17c | 63.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 21c | 62.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 62.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 21c | 52.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 52.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 52.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 39c | 44.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…8176backed No | 69c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 64c | 29.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 47c | 26.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 71c | 25.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 78c | 24.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…9e81backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 58c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.