Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791c61d4f1857d398d7a004cb19a6994f47eea58606b90b15d0d63d55b38778c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 37c | 1,228$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.83 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 844.75$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.62 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 824.94$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 525.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 501.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 500$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 40c | 456.9$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 35c | 429.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 409.76$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 25c | 405.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 48c | 396.52$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 45c | 352.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 347.01$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 326.66$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 21c | 288.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 4c | 262.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 12c | 245$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 240$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 33c | 227.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…da81backed Yes | 15c | 208.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 205.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 50c | 203.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 52c | 183$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 47c | 180.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 49c | 179.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 12c | 171.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 55c | 163$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 152.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 35c | 152$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 140.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 10c | 138.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 64c | 130.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 26c | 127.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 34c | 118.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 118.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 112$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 108.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 46c | 107.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 11c | 106.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 43c | 105.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 93.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 53c | 87.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 86.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 84.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 14c | 84.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 57c | 79.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 60c | 75.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 53c | 74.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 66c | 72.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 68.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 52c | 67.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 62.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 61.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 61.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 53.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 52.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 51.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 47.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 47.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 59c | 47.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 39.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 38.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 51c | 37.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 54c | 36.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 72c | 35.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 35.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 33.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 31.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.