Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09522b2f862de1558020ac6ddf8fa721e42dda0a5c1026422e37b5e0ef0451e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 2,643$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 23c | 1,537$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.98 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,136$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 14c | 437.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 428$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 344.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 12c | 335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 11c | 322$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 9c | 319.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 310.84$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 299.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 257.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 246.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 7c | 205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 34c | 204.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 198$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 11c | 182.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 10c | 180.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 171.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 61c | 169$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 158.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 7c | 151.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 130.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 124.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 117$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 112$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…8f80backed No | 75c | 107.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 105.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 35c | 103.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 87.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 86.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 84.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 13c | 81.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 26c | 71.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 32.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 32.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 20.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.