Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80d9d28218a1c3861bdeca1994fa04ccda91491ab631b378afc2281d82281be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked No | 74c | 934.45$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 28c | 902$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.55 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 846$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 30c | 838.9$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.84 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 821.09$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 807.19$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 661.14$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 639$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 52c | 536$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.1 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 40c | 502.87$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.8 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 27c | 500$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 499.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 491.15$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 479.36$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 415.02$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…7c92backed Yes | 69c | 408.15$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 400.84$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 32c | 343$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.34 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 33c | 311$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 303$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 27c | 297.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.31 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 291.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 69c | 285.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 67c | 258.05$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 6c | 250.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 40c | 248.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 230.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 219.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 29c | 207.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 198.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 77c | 194.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 50c | 189.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 49c | 184.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 173.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 161.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 158.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 155.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 153.21$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 151.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 149.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 40c | 145.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 62c | 142.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 41c | 129.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 29c | 128.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 31c | 128.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…711ebacked Yes | 35c | 127.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 126.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 55c | 123.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 74c | 118.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 38c | 111.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 53c | 110.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 107.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 28c | 106.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 32c | 105.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 104.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 102.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e42dbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 99.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 97.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 93.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 93.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 68c | 93.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…1cbebacked Yes | 29c | 91.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 91.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 90.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 58c | 84.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 83.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 72c | 82.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 30c | 80.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 41c | 76.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 34c | 73.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 73.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 63c | 72.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 70.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 46c | 70.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 29c | 70.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 71c | 69.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 42c | 67.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 65.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 64.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 28c | 64.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 62.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.