TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd22…2013backed Yes39c1,319$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.8831454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No73c991.95$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.121,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c591.54$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes35c270.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.084,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No62c238.71$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.261,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes35c206.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6231748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c186.77$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.894,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes42c165.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.231,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes38c146.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.012,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8814151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No60c133.07$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9821472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb5…5605backed Yes31c125$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.25911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes21c124.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6728344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes32c119.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.81,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c118.39$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No59c117.87$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.685,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No67c115.76$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6725784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No69c109.67$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.088560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes29c104.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No51c104$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9617658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c94.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.536,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes24c85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6525758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes42c81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.951,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.428368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1554656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No74c69.68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.242,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No58c68.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.052,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No55c68.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes29c64.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2720056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No64c63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.721,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes20c62.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7113048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e00…5a84backed No65c60.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.031060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No64c58.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.822,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes29c58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No73c56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2519071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No56c52.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c52.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.369,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No60c52.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.132,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No74c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.261,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No75c50.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.732958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138023.8%19 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138717.2%15 W · 72 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c49.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes29c48.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed No63c47.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3124942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4dec…001ebacked Yes34c46.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.745058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes35c45.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c45.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.483,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed No72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7231836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No52c41.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.731,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No77c38.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c38.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.844,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c37.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No62c36.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.652,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No56c33.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.852,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed No80c32.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.585658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes33c32.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No56c30.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.592,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes46c29.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5648743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No72c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.162975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes49c28.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8941752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No73c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.481,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No76c27.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6772624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c27.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No72c26.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.592,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.516935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No71c23.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.852,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No64c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2854253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No72c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.223582.9%29 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x986b…2721backed No71c21.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1320358.1%118 W · 85 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb884…19c1backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.44546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No60c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No58c18.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9319260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No57c18.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.032,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.243,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78fb…256cbacked No67c17.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.914660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No64c17.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2721847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f9…2ce9backed No67c16.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.482751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No80c15.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2328847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6164167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5533550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863a…a08bbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.692572%18 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.