Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b0e13b92b206db671e868ce97aeb661256affb2c6752e4d04c9967d179caa8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 53c | 2,346$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.18 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,676$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 2c | 885.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 472.8$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…80dfbacked No | 77c | 388.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 49c | 360.09$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 356.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 76c | 309.63$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 305.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 50c | 299.14$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 281.82$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 252.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 54c | 185.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 49c | 182.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 179.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 176.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 174.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 75c | 163$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 157.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 156.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 154$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 153.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 40c | 132.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 127.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 102.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 96.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 46c | 93.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 92.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 90.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 49c | 88.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 87.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 84.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 84.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 77.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 40c | 73.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 69.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 69.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 55c | 69.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 61.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 52.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 38c | 51.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 46c | 46.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 27c | 41.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 40.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 69c | 39.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 38.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 47c | 37.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 36.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 36.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 35.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 47c | 35.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 34.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 31.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 58c | 28.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 49c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 56c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 73c | 25.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 60c | 24.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 59c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked Yes | 58c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 102-103°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.