Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dcb0e0512a46ae18f29312ded790e0174a62e98fb56d756ce273b0895638e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 49c | 1,298$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.05 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 24c | 1,205$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.29 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 921$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 639.69$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.23 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 477.69$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.24 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 67c | 466.71$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.7 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 445.45$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 27c | 431.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.3 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 408$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed No | 73c | 348.41$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 315.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 313.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.96 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 304.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 290.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.38 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 286.55$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 70c | 285.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 265.63$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 226.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 213.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 196.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 67c | 180.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 167.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 165.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 164.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 154.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 151.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 32c | 132.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 28c | 121$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 115.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 114.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 114.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 106.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 36c | 101.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 93.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 32c | 86.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 21c | 86.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 65c | 85.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 81.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 79.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 78.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 76c | 77.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 75.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 70c | 71.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 69.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 65.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 62.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 62.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 45c | 58.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 32c | 57.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 55c | 54.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 50c | 49.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 49.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 49c | 45.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 43.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…85d9backed No | 72c | 42.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 38.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 49c | 38.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed No | 67c | 38.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 35c | 35.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 46c | 35.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 53c | 35.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 37c | 34.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 33c | 33.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 32.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 71c | 29.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 70c | 29.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 56c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…b06fbacked Yes | 50c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 69c | 22.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…71b4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…67abbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.