Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830400ba1fe81e1c74e10640ea4fbed3e0a5ddf95626f395f68bc4ba7769ad97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 2c | 11,205$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 1,502$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.51 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 75c | 1,331$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.44 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 60c | 861.78$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 791$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.68 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 44c | 630.47$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.65 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 57c | 424.88$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.71 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 404.18$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 33c | 383$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 65c | 308.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 284.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 261.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 194$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 190.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed No | 32c | 187.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 59c | 186.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 182.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 53c | 168.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 164.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 164.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 155.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 139.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 44c | 136.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 125.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 118.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 39c | 115.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 33c | 104$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 100.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 28c | 99.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 46c | 92.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 64c | 91.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 51c | 84.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 82.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 67c | 74.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 43c | 70.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 70.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 67.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 77c | 62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 55c | 60.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 61c | 49.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 47.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 40.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 38.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed Yes | 50c | 37.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 34c | 37.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 65c | 36.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…cf83backed No | 40c | 35.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 61c | 33.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 34c | 29.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 29.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 41c | 24.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 48c | 23.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.