TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,070

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes44c1,815$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.511,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No43c641.04$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.861,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes41c477.6$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.951,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No4c475.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1149543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No22c467.77$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.144,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa12d…4c1bbacked No53c466.72$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5320241.1%83 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes47c459.18$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7924141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed No47c395.36$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9710342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes44c323.91$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.554,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ebb…14c7backed Yes55c300$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c282.69$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No37c272$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5814254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c266.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.014,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes37c250$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes43c246.45$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.714134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes60c217.09$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0913746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No24c211.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.782,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c208.27$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes64c198.15$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.448421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No35c176.54$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.962,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No33c172.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.642,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No12c170.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.096,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes40c150.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.141,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No27c144.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8635323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c142$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.834,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No41c139$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x107c…ab15backed Yes42c134.91$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.13917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No9c126.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.571717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No36c123.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.082,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c120.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.254,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No24c120.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.392,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c118.54$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes46c117.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.935135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes53c116.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No21c116.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70e…3204backed Yes74c115.02$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.021752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No22c114.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.522,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked No51c111.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.327729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c105$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.453,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c104.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.183,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes48c102$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.491,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No54c100.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.218655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.414151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6047538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3945148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No33c90.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.162,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No31c90.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.652,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes48c85.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.065742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes40c84.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.949938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No41c84.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2376059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes53c84.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9520739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No29c81.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.452,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No34c80.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…5e1abacked Yes80c80.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.352556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No31c79.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.392,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No21c77.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes27c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked No28c69.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.341679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes48c65.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.922934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.952,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No63c65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes25c63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0428847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No57c61.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.082,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.413,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No62c60.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.481,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes49c60.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8612530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5214932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes54c59.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.023366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No53c56.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.974,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes74c55.32$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6213588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes33c55.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.812630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed Yes62c53.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.219260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes53c52.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8644536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c52.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.213,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No49c51.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4934151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x593e…2f85backed Yes31c51.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+223.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes57c51.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.981942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes46c50.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.181,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c50.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.515,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d43…9719backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81c5…9d28backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.454938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No27c47.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7277151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes51c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes52c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.89349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x758d…9548backed Yes28c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes67c44.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.843452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked No58c44.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc878…a6f3backed Yes42c43.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3315646.8%73 W · 83 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.