Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5adf7ad92aa8e4315870d6e5ffe9fd216f59939f555a8de8f9bc5288a0120da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,972$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.31 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 1,590$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 5c | 794.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 657.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 545.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 510.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 394.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 6c | 339.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 310.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 310$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 300.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked Yes | 7c | 284.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 70c | 275.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 6c | 259.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 11c | 258.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 31c | 249.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 249.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 248.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked Yes | 6c | 230.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 17c | 229.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 217.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 214.39$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 152.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 144.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 13c | 132.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 107.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 105.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 104.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 102.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 23c | 94.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 84.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 33c | 80.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 68.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 18c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 32c | 55.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 30c | 50.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 65c | 46.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 38.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 37.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 34.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 33.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…d308backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 67c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 79c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 80c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.