TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c1,978$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4751,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes34c796.29$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.878421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c710.8$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c693.86$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.363,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c473.63$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.041,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed No72c426.79$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.216349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c389.44$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.684,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c375.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes15c360.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.684134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes31c325.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0924141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes31c324.39$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No78c299.79$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.536750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fe1…89cdbacked No77c286.28$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes19c276$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8220025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No67c275.91$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.237258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c268.93$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c251.61$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.215,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes20c237.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.421,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No63c220.7$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1338138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes20c217.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.497035.7%25 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes9c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c192.23$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.094,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes21c185.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0642849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes19c183.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2518328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes30c180.12$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8711525.2%29 W · 86 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No73c180$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.214060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c176.55$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.395,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c174.82$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb338…5e1abacked Yes31c172.19$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.212556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes32c165.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7620739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes33c163.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.264431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No68c151.49$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8877151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No68c145.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.434,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a35…62b0backed Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No71c138.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.662,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…5db6backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes27c124.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.255135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No73c118.87$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.232,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No70c111.76$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6563538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No76c111.73$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.362,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c110.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.24,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c109.77$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.012,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No74c109.28$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.712,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes37c108.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3834846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No70c107.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c104.84$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.423,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No73c100.44$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.72,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.554143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2234831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032f…8d74backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No71c99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6414254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes25c98.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6912530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes33c98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.735742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No79c97.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes21c96.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4835323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No77c94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No76c90.45$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.452,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes33c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.298337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfcc…416cbacked Yes36c87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No74c85.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.662,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x107c…ab15backed Yes27c78.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.123917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes34c78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No70c74.04$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0538560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes19c73.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No71c71.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.812,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes40c69.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.746949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes41c69.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4344536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…bf9bbacked No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes27c64.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No74c64.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.155267.3%35 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes26c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7643441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes28c63.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8129927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c63.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.534,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes36c63.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes26c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1728847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd79f…c113backed Yes29c61.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes17c60.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab3e…18efbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758d…9548backed Yes24c59.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.555133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No78c59.56$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.832,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c57.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.333,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes26c54.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.063740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes23c54.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.221,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x462e…a612backed Yes24c53.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes24c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1346232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d43…9719backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.952231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81c5…9d28backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c49.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.475,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No79c48.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.472,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes33c47.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3b…880abacked Yes30c46.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.163243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.