Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3743943e7f08b7fc18be0152dc11da553be2ff1a7c420af399fd722d4d07f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 1,978$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 34c | 796.29$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.87 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 710.8$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 693.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 473.63$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 72c | 426.79$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 389.44$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 375.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 15c | 360.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 31c | 325.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 324.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 78c | 299.79$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe1…89cdbacked No | 77c | 286.28$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 19c | 276$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 67c | 275.91$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 268.93$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 251.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 237.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 63c | 220.7$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 20c | 217.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 192.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 21c | 185.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 19c | 183.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 30c | 180.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 176.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 174.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 31c | 172.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 32c | 165.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 33c | 163.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 151.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 145.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 138.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 27c | 124.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 118.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 70c | 111.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 111.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 110.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 109.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 109.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 37c | 108.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 107.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 104.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 100.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 71c | 99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 25c | 98.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 33c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 97.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 96.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 90.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 33c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcc…416cbacked Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 85.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 27c | 78.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 70c | 74.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 71.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 40c | 69.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 69.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 64.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 74c | 64.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 63.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 63.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 63.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79f…c113backed Yes | 29c | 61.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 60.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 24c | 59.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 59.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 57.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 26c | 54.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 54.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed Yes | 24c | 53.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c5…9d28backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 49.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 48.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 33c | 47.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 30c | 46.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.