Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426b4b5f08b290626af10cfd3a9e4630cba0bb82dc65faa056bde5d8cc36d984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 2,150$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 44c | 900$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 791.51$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 38c | 642.01$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.78 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 37c | 564.59$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.59 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 493.67$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.37 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 343.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 60c | 343.3$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 326.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 295.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 55c | 206.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 187$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 178.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 64c | 174.18$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 60c | 168.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 157.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 62c | 156.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 56c | 140$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 46c | 137.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 132.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 127$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 43c | 125.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 114.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 94.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 88.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 85.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 75.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 46c | 73.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 60c | 70.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 68.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 50c | 61.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 53c | 57.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 53.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 42c | 52.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 50.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 45.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 61c | 42.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 41.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 40.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 57c | 40.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 61c | 39.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 47c | 37.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 43c | 36.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 35.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…5605backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 63c | 29.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 42c | 28.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 25.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 25.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 48c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…5f93backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1e7abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…d31dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…bcfdbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.