Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad6c5fdcad2499e7fea13eaa09dcde416abd4a6a3201e602fa11473abf6f5e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 831.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 821.42$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 23c | 714.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.04 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 51c | 560.54$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.54 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 79c | 516.79$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 411.95$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 16c | 376.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.76 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 73c | 374.51$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.95 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 360.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 21c | 328.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 43c | 321.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 26c | 279.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 279.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 206.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 204.09$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 55c | 198.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 21c | 167.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 29c | 154.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 80c | 118.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 117.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 114.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 17c | 111.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 106.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 13c | 103.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 103.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 37c | 101.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 96.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 15c | 87.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 75c | 83.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 82.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 61.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 37c | 56.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 22c | 49.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 28c | 49.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 48.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 48.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 33c | 41.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 40.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 59c | 39.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 32.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 34c | 31.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 80c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 29.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 72c | 19.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…25d6backed Yes | 80c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 60c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.