Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x063b43fd2a0b2dce0d6c59742547d5cc8a1c5d28fc84f7bdc8cceff28454667c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 2c | 800.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 23c | 713.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 578.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 473$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 448.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 38c | 420.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 21c | 350.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 30c | 333.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 305.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 4c | 282.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 280.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 25c | 265.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 254.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 253.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 222.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 185.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 164.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 154.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 152.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 148.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 104.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 23c | 96.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba76…b233backed Yes | 23c | 94.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 91.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 82.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 71.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 50.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 34c | 47.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 44.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked Yes | 29c | 42.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 74c | 42.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed Yes | 29c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 37.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 29.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 75c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…8dc2backed No | 75c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 76c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…a7f7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.