Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcecd533e6e3b22ad4fb9dcb35d9b049c9ed361a28cef0fe264a85fcaa8c677d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 694.75$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 561.91$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 42c | 512.28$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.24 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 61c | 484.15$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.6 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 479.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 58c | 302.7$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.28 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 300.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.74 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 43c | 246$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 240.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 42c | 238.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 11c | 238$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 9c | 220.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 209.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 49c | 205.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 201.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 78c | 199.51$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 193$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 39c | 190.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 185.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 181.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 177.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 161.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 161$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 61c | 148.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 130.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 119.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 111.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 108.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 106.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 100.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 43c | 100.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 69c | 97.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 90.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 22c | 87.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 37c | 79.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 79.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 76.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 43c | 73.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 73.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 71.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 47c | 70.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 59.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 53.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 38c | 52.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 50.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 49.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 49.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…fe1dbacked No | 60c | 47.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 42c | 47.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 42c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 60c | 46.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 68c | 45.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 44.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 39.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 39.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 57c | 39.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 38.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 45c | 38.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 35.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 49c | 35.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 63c | 33.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 31.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 31.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 30.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 61c | 30.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 68c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 62c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…66efbacked Yes | 41c | 28.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 26.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.