Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2531a3fd0f3155111568eae3eaa830ef6e6155e43d9f45ff3a9f008aa37ac6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 2,296$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 1,426$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 675.67$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.06 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 37c | 622.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 521.23$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 460.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 408.67$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 356.35$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 348.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 231.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 230$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 210.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 67c | 196.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 192$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 192$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 174.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 63c | 170.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 168.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 70c | 142.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 76c | 142.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…771fbacked No | 76c | 139$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 43c | 138.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 27c | 133.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 131$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 78c | 127.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 125.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 26c | 120.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 120.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…11b5backed Yes | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 115.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 113$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 106.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 103.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 27c | 101.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 100.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 56c | 96.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 96.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 72c | 94.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 94.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 29c | 93.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 77c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 78c | 92.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 78c | 89.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 24c | 81.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 32c | 73.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 22c | 73.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 72.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 70.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 67.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 63.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 61.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 28c | 59.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 73c | 59.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 58.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 21c | 58.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 55.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 52c | 53.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 46.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 44.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 48c | 41.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 60c | 38.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 37.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 35.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 58c | 34.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 34.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 32.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 32.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 31.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 31.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.