World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11f50dca7aab27ab0f4da292298439b1dd8bdb9585932476b16acbc99672a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 2,504$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.23 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 24c | 1,565$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.72 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 650.96$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.13 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 442.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 369.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +196.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 367.46$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 346.2$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 41c | 322.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 13c | 315.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 57c | 274.42$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 257.58$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 242.84$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 241.78$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 237.81$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 237.57$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 39c | 237.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 229.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 219.37$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 186.24$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 171.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 166.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 137.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 136.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 128.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 123.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 119.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 31c | 106.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 80c | 106.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 64c | 104.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 34c | 103.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 101.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 36c | 99.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 68c | 99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c88bbacked No | 58c | 91.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 90.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 39c | 88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 87.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 41c | 80.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 36c | 79.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 75.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 73.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 20c | 73.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 36c | 72.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 69.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 67.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 60c | 64.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 62.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 27c | 59.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129a…f66fbacked Yes | 27c | 59.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 59.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 56.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 56.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 56.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 23c | 55.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 71c | 53.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 41.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 37.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 66c | 37.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes | 36c | 34.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 33.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0161…0e76backed Yes | 45c | 33.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 32.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.