TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,837 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes33c2,504$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.2323723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes24c1,565$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.727427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c650.96$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.138655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c442.71$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes27c369.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+196.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c367.46$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6827143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c346.2$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes41c322.47$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.91618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8130…5a50backed Yes13c315.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No57c274.42$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.935957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes30c266.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c257.58$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No67c242.84$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.74355.8%24 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No71c241.78$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.122355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c237.81$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c237.57$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3417952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes39c237.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.643036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c229.4$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c219.37$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c186.24$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0116254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c171.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c166.28$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes30c165$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.596835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.513268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No66c137.74$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.524637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c136.54$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes28c128.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.922128.6%6 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes15c123.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.757741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No71c119.54$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4314100%14 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes31c106.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No80c106.54$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8314126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes28c105$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No64c104.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.73548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc839…bd21backed Yes34c103.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c102$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.721,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No69c101.89$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1914954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes36c99.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+147.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No68c99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x382c…c88bbacked No58c91.03$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No64c90.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4714753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes39c88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No65c87.59$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2814553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes36c87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.431127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes41c80.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.172729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes36c79.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes42c75.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.921353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No61c73.49$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8716051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51df…8605backed Yes20c73.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes36c72.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+80.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7214454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No73c70$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.781770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No66c69.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7515056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No63c67.76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4116755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes30c67.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.498937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No60c64.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.55317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No70c62.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6315954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.027057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes27c59.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.157129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x129a…f66fbacked Yes27c59.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes32c59.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes38c59.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No68c56.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.089656.3%54 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c56.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1516852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes31c56.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.131637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes23c55.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.932010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5517345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No71c53.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.761250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9413243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.518342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf46e…4421backed Yes36c47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No63c41.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5316850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes31c38.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No68c37.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15875.9%44 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No66c37.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes31c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4710243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes36c34.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes49c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.665547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c33.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.114827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0161…0e76backed Yes45c33.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No64c32.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5318158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No52c31.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3618669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1515237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd333…53f9backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No66c29.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2416450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c28.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.176357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked No75c26.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa393…fabebacked No73c26.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.211190.9%10 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick76cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No68c26.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.486238.7%24 W · 38 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.