TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes56c1,203$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.7523723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes52c838.22$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.082339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No38c663.88$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.318655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e5…1ddfbacked No43c559.99$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c494.89$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7423551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes57c482.46$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.46333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No45c396.84$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.977335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes53c304.55$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.553132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c297.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No33c288.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8315954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes58c285.38$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.121618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No36c283.53$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7622355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes57c250.73$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c244.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.551,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No29c212.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7214954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No49c205.12$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.725127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes51c194.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.984748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No40c187.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No14c183.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No23c179.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.455317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcc…b908backed No17c173.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No26c165.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5216850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes45c160.4$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.855547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90e6…319dbacked No48c155.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes62c150.08$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.081546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes61c147.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.546955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes60c142.92$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.711546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c136.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No42c135$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.72254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes67c134.4$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes56c134.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.498865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No18c127.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3214445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No61c123.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.91662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No20c122.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.116755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.23339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No27c114.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0816254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes58c111.57$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.173548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes56c106.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.74580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+80.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c104.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes69c100.03$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.471637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5314842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…abfbbacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…cf83backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf46e…4421backed No48c99.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No35c93.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3216051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No49c87.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5914454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes62c86.59$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.842729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No31c85.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9815056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c84.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1816852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed Yes55c84$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.981060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.163756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No50c78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396238.7%24 W · 38 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes53c77.68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.886835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No35c77.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9416450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No25c74.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7314521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes55c66.89$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.048438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes57c62.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.973036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12df…64d2backed Yes59c62.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No55c60.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.211833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed No34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+113.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4f…aff0backed Yes61c59.85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes59c57.02$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No40c56.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes61c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.041127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No37c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.631152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No39c53.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No45c52.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.517236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No24c51.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.287057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1346…af38backed No39c51.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8613243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254443.2%19 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1926355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.281770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No42c47.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+58.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No43c45.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2527143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No32c43.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1214753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No26c43.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3414553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No39c43.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8514351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes56c42.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+147.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes54c41.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.943735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc839…bd21backed Yes62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.321250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.410243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked No37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62128.6%6 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3952…3910backed Yes76c39.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes55c39.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.718937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed No44c37.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes61c35.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.682045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed Yes66c33.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.753141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No44c30.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.415237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.