World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9d2df501cdc6cccc681ba76a03ccc1f8ab118c0b1b04a3f4acfbdfac0bd29dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 855.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 9c | 526.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 7c | 385$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 345.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 12c | 300.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed Yes | 6c | 241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 8c | 233.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 8c | 230.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 5c | 206.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 15c | 185.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 6c | 184.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 6c | 180.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 174.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 173.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 19c | 144.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 8c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 9c | 139.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 15c | 137.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 14c | 117.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 11c | 96.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.