TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes1c2,030$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes43c906.7$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No42c823.49$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.471,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No11c709.43$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.124,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No25c698.9$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0677151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed No26c693.86$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.629518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No20c541.71$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.027258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c448.88$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.954,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes43c409.09$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.728847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes39c355.43$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8750860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No12c348$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No48c340.02$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.951,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No24c322.1$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6234533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3079…7b77backed Yes45c307.26$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.272433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No9c303.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.222,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes38c241.8$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.721,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No25c208.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.572,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed No55c185.33$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.514134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c184.72$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No17c181.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.261717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No11c159.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.382,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No20c147.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2746626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No19c143.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.872,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No52c143.04$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0438560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed No51c140.57$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2112629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No27c137.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.131,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed Yes73c133.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.152157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No57c129$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4780560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c125.15$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.215,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No14c122.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.042,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked No58c120$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.86556.9%37 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No19c119.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.652,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked No17c114.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.691127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c109.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes48c104.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9812350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes47c102$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4341752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4442547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No16c98.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.852,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes43c98.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7147538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes46c97.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked No22c94.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.97733.8%26 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a25…4e62backed No56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+42.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe44b…bf9bbacked No56c88.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.742378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x100c…edc9backed Yes44c88.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.881717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-54.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No55c87.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.194,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes45c83.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes53c82.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes54c82.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.37057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No16c80.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.661,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes44c80.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.368655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c80.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.385,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No26c79.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.612,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c78.69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.894,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462e…a612backed Yes51c78.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No22c76.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.312,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No35c75.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.951,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No16c70.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.892,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes52c68.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.662317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No55c68.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.926660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No34c68.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7189951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes51c65.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6146240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes48c62.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes45c60.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.465,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes44c59.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.969,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes52c58.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e25…ef0ebacked No54c55.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No33c55.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.062,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26c9…ce95backed Yes48c50.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No62c50.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0415669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4942849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes42c47.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.046642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35ff…4796backed Yes54c47.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No56c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7620056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes40c46.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7514957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a0…fa42backed Yes79c46.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c6…4d97backed Yes54c46.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes47c45.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.391,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea25…7d4dbacked Yes45c42.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes43c41.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7730…2aefbacked Yes42c40.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed No49c39.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.393525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed No44c39.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.863625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x746c…b2e6backed Yes49c38.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c38.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.347,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes37c37.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.885424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes40c36.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7626442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.