Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc311dce55d951bd75c6c875057f37a4898fff44726e5d4711d5278ab41fc4783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 906.7$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 823.49$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.47 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 709.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 25c | 698.9$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 26c | 693.86$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.62 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 20c | 541.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.02 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 448.88$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 43c | 409.09$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 355.43$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 348$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.17 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 340.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 24c | 322.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.62 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 45c | 307.26$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 9c | 303.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 241.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 208.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 55c | 185.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 184.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked No | 17c | 181.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 11c | 159.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 20c | 147.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.27 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 19c | 143.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 143.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 51c | 140.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 27c | 137.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 73c | 133.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 129$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 125.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 14c | 122.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 58c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 19c | 119.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked No | 17c | 114.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 109.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 48c | 104.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 47c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 98.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 98.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 46c | 97.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked No | 22c | 94.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 56c | 88.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 44c | 88.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 87.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 45c | 83.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 53c | 82.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 54c | 82.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 80.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 44c | 80.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 80.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 79.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 78.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed Yes | 51c | 78.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 76.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 75.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 70.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 52c | 68.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 55c | 68.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 68.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 65.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 60.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 52c | 58.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…ef0ebacked No | 54c | 55.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 55.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…ce95backed Yes | 48c | 50.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 62c | 50.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 42c | 47.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 54c | 47.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 46.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a0…fa42backed Yes | 79c | 46.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…4d97backed Yes | 54c | 46.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 45.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…7d4dbacked Yes | 45c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 41.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 42c | 40.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed No | 44c | 39.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…b2e6backed Yes | 49c | 38.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 38.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 37c | 37.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 40c | 36.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.