TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes9c783.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.792317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes13c545.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes14c513.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes3c416.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.513026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No75c399.58$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes38c394.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8c…f1f5backed Yes17c361.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.08140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes12c343.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes8c340.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5618328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes25c336.37$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.743932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes15c289.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7917524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No76c266.73$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.891,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes28c249.45$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.129728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd394…7e90backed Yes6c227.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.963215.6%5 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+141.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes13c210.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8346452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes13c199.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.993231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes13c196.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No75c191.27$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9128847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa61…97dabacked Yes8c185.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.841216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c176.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.522,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes29c168$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked Yes11c147.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.931717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c138.66$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No80c124.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.171,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes10c124.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4434533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c119.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.295,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes20c116.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3326442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes13c113.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.241679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7318…3ce0backed Yes27c109.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid+8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No70c108.66$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2425784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c105.73$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.613,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.787258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3388028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.27733.8%26 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c99.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.879,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes18c96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.134,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes12c91.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8330834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462e…a612backed Yes23c90.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes20c90.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c90.23$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.124,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes37c81.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1613746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes22c79.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4329927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes20c70.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4220739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.25,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No76c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.814957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes26c63.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes25c63.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c60.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.666,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12df…64d2backed Yes25c59.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c56.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.214,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes22c50.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x758d…9548backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fd…8223backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No72c49.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.886750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No71c46.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3615669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes25c45.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes28c45.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.676949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes25c42.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7842555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c38.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.454,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No78c37.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa12d…4c1bbacked No69c37.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4720241.1%83 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd6…7453backed No73c34.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…437ebacked No70c34.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.291369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes30c32.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No75c28.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1162275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No45c25.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.081,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xeacb…022dbacked No78c24.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.361163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672d…fcaebacked No73c21.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0918567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed No79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.994852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb3e…0e9dbacked No74c18.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd415…44f6backed No73c18.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.94580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No70c17.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1721272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1519260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.