TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes23c3,564$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.69518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes14c2,438$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c959.3$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c957.81$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.91,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No79c943.49$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No75c708.43$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.3138138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No55c584.85$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6872042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c510.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.722,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes22c509.39$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.0228847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes22c496.54$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.2813531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No23c483.72$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae73…09fabacked No78c408.36$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick75cpaid-61.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c387.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.594,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes19c362.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.8546626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No79c357.37$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.521,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No75c355.21$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.655451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes21c348.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.6650860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes34c326.77$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c316.95$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes5c310$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.227246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes18c309.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8334533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes53c287.43$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8513588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed No79c286.14$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8110058%58 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes13c257.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.051679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.546452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.367258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes24c198.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.21,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes17c194.44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.9920241.1%83 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c193.46$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes27c151.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3314932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes16c150.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1741046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes21c142.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.293,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes26c139.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2314957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c135.95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.081,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No57c129$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes42c126.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No74c122.52$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6620569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c120.17$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes42c118$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.371,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes19c114$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes18c112.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.076949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12df…64d2backed Yes15c105.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.191136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x001c…e5edbacked Yes30c105$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.782250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes24c102.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7216530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c102$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No75c101.12$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.592,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd453…48bbbacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.081346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0e1…4995backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606346%29 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6714060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7337150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8881855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes17c99.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.992630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes18c98.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes23c98.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.066642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No75c98.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4263538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes38c94$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.251,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c82.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.344,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c80.3$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.885,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes22c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.29346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes21c80$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No77c80$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.38560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes24c77.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.694540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes14c72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+75.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes27c71.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2117251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No79c67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes35c66.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.12,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c64.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.723,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes19c63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0394919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No64c62.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.918655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd069…d078backed Yes44c60.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.362259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes17c60.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3df…463dbacked Yes25c60.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.279456.4%53 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c59.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.584,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No74c58.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4140%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes20c56.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.367749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes22c55.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No77c55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.57862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No76c53.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.152,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c49.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No60c42.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes43c41.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.833740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No77c38.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7c9…9383backed No56c38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.281668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No60c37.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5121847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No62c37.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9623941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No78c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.442555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No72c33.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8326442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No78c32.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1525358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No63c32.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2921272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.364,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c30.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes44c30.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.989146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.226,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No78c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.