Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40607e51073f5ce7f56089db872f47639b568be17b23d889ed0142de07dfb403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 23c | 3,564$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,729.6 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 2,438$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.7 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 959.3$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 957.81$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.9 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 943.49$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 75c | 708.43$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.31 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 584.85$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.68 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 510.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 22c | 509.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.02 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 22c | 496.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.28 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 23c | 483.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae73…09fabacked No | 78c | 408.36$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 75cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 387.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 362.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.85 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 357.37$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 75c | 355.21$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.65 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 21c | 348.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.66 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 34c | 326.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 316.95$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 5c | 310$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.2 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 18c | 309.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.83 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 53c | 287.43$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 79c | 286.14$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.81 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 13c | 257.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.05 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 198.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 17c | 194.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 193.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 27c | 151.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 150.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 142.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 26c | 139.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 135.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 129$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 42c | 126.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 74c | 122.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 120.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 42c | 118$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 19c | 114$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 18c | 112.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 15c | 105.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 24c | 102.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 101.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…48bbbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 98.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 23c | 98.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 75c | 98.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 82.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 80.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 24c | 77.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 27c | 71.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 66.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 64.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 64c | 62.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 44c | 60.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 17c | 60.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 25c | 60.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 59.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 74c | 58.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 20c | 56.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes | 22c | 55.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 77c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 53.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 49.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 60c | 42.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 43c | 41.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 60c | 37.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 62c | 37.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 72c | 33.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 78c | 32.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 63c | 32.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.