Movies · resolved market
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcecfe518a6eb4346bbbad185f71ae5e6ec75c5665ad5ea877d11abfcea4281e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 50c | 1,329$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.5 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,131$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.17 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 1,031$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.22 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 1,022$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 661.73$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 572.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 72c | 520$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 49c | 483.84$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 21c | 465$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 61c | 454.79$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.42 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 9c | 450.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 404.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 27c | 388.02$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.43 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 312.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 260.25$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 255.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 237$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 232$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 23c | 186$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 142.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 141.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 16c | 114.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 38c | 112.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 72c | 111.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 29c | 100.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 29c | 99.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 17c | 79.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de3…b489backed Yes | 26c | 74.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 73.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 25c | 73.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 69.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 74c | 67.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 30c | 66.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 59.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 53.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 29c | 51.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Yes | 72c | 51.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 47.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 72c | 44.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 48c | 32.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 46c | 28.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 73c | 28.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 54c | 25.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?this page
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.