Movies · resolved market
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cdee06270692f6cb227ebf3eb2c934b013ecc65c13763e7a981b29f46150df8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 79c | 10,867$8,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.7 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 19c | 9,007$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.47 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed Yes | 16c | 8,341$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 20c | 2,540$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.45 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.28 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,665$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.1 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 29c | 1,411$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.88 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,381$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 26c | 733.96$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.01 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…062abacked Yes | 45c | 700$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 67c | 621.01$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 585.34$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 66c | 469.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 73c | 387.16$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 357$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 15c | 348.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 345$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked No | 80c | 312.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 300$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 12c | 287.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 30c | 264.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 80c | 195$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 31c | 194.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 179.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 66c | 170$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…61eabacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d03dbacked No | 65c | 115$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 27c | 112.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 75c | 86.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 39c | 76.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 24c | 75.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 74.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 67.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 65.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 18c | 58.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 56.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 22c | 55.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yes | 25c | 54.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 25c | 53.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 35.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dde4backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…4152backed No | 61c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 51c | 20.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?this page
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Yes won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.