Movies · resolved market
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff30dac825a3b3995c66be1908dd354c7550b36f741c4d9be7846f936534f447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 69c | 10,507$7,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,255.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 31c | 10,466$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,203.18 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 34c | 1,740$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.96 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 25c | 600$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…062abacked Yes | 25c | 529.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 381.61$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 25c | 372.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 17c | 361.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 17c | 320$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…7195backed Yes | 30c | 268.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 246.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 73c | 198.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 25c | 188.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 145.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 10c | 131.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 125.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 28c | 118.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 101.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 25c | 80.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 70c | 74.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6169…a255backed Yes | 29c | 67.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 61.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…5ac8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458b…d686backed Yes | 29c | 48.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 36.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…6c16backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed No | 74c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35eb…157dbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 80c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?this page
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?No won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Yes won
- Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.