Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ef2cc0f0a884217b1b69554ef36935f9fb1930339379422d68cb419019a5d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 2c | 1,515$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…eb5ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,285$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 1,179$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 1,127$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.81 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,020$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 8c | 977.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 4c | 877.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 60c | 866.47$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.06 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 37c | 612.75$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.74 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 529.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 433$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 24c | 426.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 61c | 420$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 364.56$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 18c | 350.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 14c | 350$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 265.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 32c | 263.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 39c | 230$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 216.43$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 12c | 208.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 206.18$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 186.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 183.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 35c | 175$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 60c | 166.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 19c | 158.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…6f0cbacked Yes | 32c | 158.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 31c | 154$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 18c | 146.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 36c | 133$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 129.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…3df3backed Yes | 29c | 115.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 112.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 109.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 35c | 106.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 29c | 101.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed No | 60c | 82.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 29c | 72.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 69.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…62f8backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 27c | 55.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 47.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 70c | 42.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 42.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 40c | 42.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 67c | 42.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 45c | 32.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…22b5backed No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…8226backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 76c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.