Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19d1417b6a00cacd153dba524056fc86189076c4791fd14ae9d9e64d57c68211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 8c | 1,211$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 70c | 919.24$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 3c | 844.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 578$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 3c | 460.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 27c | 385.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…6f0cbacked Yes | 15c | 338.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 75c | 266.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 11c | 252.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 198.64$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 18c | 183.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…e786backed Yes | 6c | 182.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 14c | 179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 22c | 174$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 24c | 144.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 15c | 141.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 19c | 103.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 102.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 77.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…e98fbacked Yes | 13c | 76.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 38.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…d323backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.