Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5693bb4fc792886dfdcb64330eb1dc66a9b4361d97d31998d0b5193d2d01571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,728$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.3 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 1,518$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.73 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…087fbacked No | 69c | 1,181$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 62c | 693.44$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.86 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 651.97$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 68c | 636.87$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 33c | 635.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 607.82$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 516.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 511.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 79c | 506.7$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 4c | 458.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 33c | 449.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.11 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 35c | 402.4$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 22c | 401.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 21c | 392.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 389.84$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 347.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 59c | 317.22$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 74c | 312.43$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 30c | 310.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 10c | 297.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 78c | 293.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 28c | 266.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 227.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 227.68$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 221.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 62c | 216.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed Yes | 24c | 210.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 37c | 210$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 206.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 77c | 196.83$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 42c | 181.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 14c | 179.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 39c | 176.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 77c | 173.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 54c | 163.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 155.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 78c | 151$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked No | 12c | 150.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 78c | 150.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 32c | 149.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 70c | 146.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 79c | 144.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 65c | 139.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 134.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 131.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed No | 70c | 129.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 76c | 122.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 20c | 114.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 112.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 23c | 108.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 104.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 102.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 26c | 99.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 28c | 94.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 15c | 94.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 65c | 90.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 50c | 88.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 19c | 86.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 84.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 35c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…0a4abacked Yes | 26c | 76.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 74.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 71.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 70.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 33c | 69.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 69.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 69c | 66.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 66.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 59.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 49c | 59.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 59.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…a8f7backed Yes | 75c | 56.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 29c | 55.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 48.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 47.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 59c | 47.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 75c | 43.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 56c | 43.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 42.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.