Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5fbc1c6974c48bff5214483808283f7e07758112c72c3c580ac9e02150aef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 68c | 4,423$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.91 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Up | 34c | 3,901$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.05 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 64c | 3,196$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.87 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 34c | 2,919$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.97 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 65c | 1,005$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 71c | 867.02$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 27c | 625.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.04 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Down | 65c | 597.12$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.99 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed Up | 4c | 589.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Up | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 64c | 399.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3281…6531backed Up | 42c | 324.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 39c | 271.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked Down | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Down | 61c | 186.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…2d01backed Down | 66c | 153.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Up | 45c | 122.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 64c | 108.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Down | 61c | 103.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 60c | 101.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Down | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Up | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed Up | 35c | 71.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 61c | 54.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Up | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Up | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Down | 58c | 43.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 54c | 35.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Up | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Down | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2a…b7dfbacked Down | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.