Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd119ba5f21a8b50b83e6222432162e2cce6ad307c06040a2d80510a1d895be64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 1,030$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 965.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 947.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 60c | 924.35$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.59 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 43c | 899.06$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.33 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 41c | 788.92$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.36 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 775.38$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 757.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 34c | 599.47$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 567.1$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 549.55$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.95 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 22c | 434$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 54c | 386.59$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.02 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 57c | 335.35$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 41c | 315.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 69c | 304.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 300.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 290$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 275.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 266.95$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 30c | 264.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 26c | 260$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 258.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 58c | 254.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 250.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 248.18$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 27c | 236.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 35c | 229.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…3ac9backed Yes | 46c | 226.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 41c | 219$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 45c | 193.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 192.84$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 163.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 158.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 41c | 153.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 145.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 134.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 132.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 28c | 132$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 37c | 129.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 128.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 61c | 128.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 58c | 123.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 115.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 108.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 106$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 35c | 103.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 27c | 98.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 96.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 95.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 90.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 88.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 69c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 40c | 81.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 35c | 81.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…0a4abacked Yes | 37c | 80.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 79.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 75.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 40c | 70.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 64c | 67.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 56c | 63.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 62.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 62.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked No | 56c | 62.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 61.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 59.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 59.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 51c | 57.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 31c | 57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 56.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…47c6backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +133%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 54.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 39c | 51.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 32c | 50.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 30c | 50.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.