Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ece21754d49e574a0cf189d25073b7de95eadc90db8716d352a1ecbbc1cb1de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 17c | 1,996$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.72 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 4c | 1,590$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 61c | 1,557$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.84 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 1,041$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 10c | 978.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 965.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 42c | 928$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.61 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 827.48$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.62 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 812.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 3c | 810.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 799.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 31c | 733.72$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 13c | 717.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 77c | 572$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 553.37$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 543.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 530.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 19c | 515.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 505.69$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Yes | 4c | 473$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 467.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 18c | 446.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 26c | 431.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 11c | 384.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 25c | 351.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 37c | 321.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 31c | 291.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 6c | 282.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 280.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 270.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 30c | 249.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…33abbacked Yes | 43c | 238.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 71c | 199.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 193.21$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 167.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 166.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 157$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 61c | 152.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 10c | 136.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 19c | 130.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 15c | 127.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 123.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed No | 77c | 123.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 21c | 123.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 15c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 28c | 104.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 103.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 23c | 98.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 29c | 91.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 88.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 15c | 81.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 80.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 76.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 65.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 58.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 57.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 32c | 57.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 52.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 20c | 51.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 50.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 39c | 50.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 47.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 69c | 46.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 46.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 70c | 42.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 70c | 42.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 41.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5da…ed2ebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 37.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 43c | 36.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 68c | 35.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 60c | 35.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.