Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330e593a35754cfc726e23832f136df59e5214674f7eff4fad13be3134dfdb43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 12c | 2,438$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.57 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,308$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 9c | 884$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 853.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 687.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 675.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 8c | 645.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 9c | 634.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 2c | 580$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 549.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 9c | 535.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 524.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 349.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 305.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 305.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 254$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 241.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 202.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…a8f7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 188.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 169.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 12c | 167.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 11c | 162.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 140.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 14c | 103.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…03b1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd4…3c2fbacked Yes | 14c | 89.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 15c | 78.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 15c | 66.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.