Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86070143c0f4a1b95fb5aab112cde7aacba33ccdd5e8572848838ba588ce138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 31c | 1,285$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.06 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…3ac9backed Yes | 54c | 906.32$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 900$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 31c | 666.58$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.71 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 76c | 609.46$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 16c | 558.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 22c | 553.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 548.37$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 60c | 523.47$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 38c | 518.2$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 480.49$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 427.29$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 399.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 11c | 325.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 18c | 304.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 295.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 17c | 290.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 16c | 273.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 29c | 266.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 25c | 239.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 238.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 10c | 220.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 211.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 37c | 207.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 207.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 18c | 194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 16c | 184.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 17c | 179.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 153.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 153.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 63c | 153.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 46c | 152.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 152$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed No | 58c | 149.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 139.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 134.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 44c | 129$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 117.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 17c | 116.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 109.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9890…ab5dbacked Yes | 18c | 108.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 106.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 35c | 100.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 74c | 100.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…03b1backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 67c | 96.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 95.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked No | 76c | 90.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 69c | 87.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…80a9backed Yes | 56c | 84.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 77.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 48c | 77.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 19c | 77.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 40c | 75.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 46c | 71.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 69.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 53c | 68.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 64.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 58.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 32c | 54.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd4…3c2fbacked Yes | 38c | 51.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked Yes | 27c | 51.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 78c | 50.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 47.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 47.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 44c | 45.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 43.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 43.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 31c | 40.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 56c | 39.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 35.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 33.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 32.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…33abbacked Yes | 41c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 30.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 22.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.