TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes42c1,309$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.433834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes50c1,005$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.8910043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No49c975.46$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.1732748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…0f0ebacked No54c896.2$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No54c604.18$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.72133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes43c503.58$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.584748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No49c471$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7912055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed Yes44c317.95$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No48c282.49$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.996241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No30c281.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.985117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c266.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c257.46$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1510442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No5c236.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c232.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes57c219.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.995961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No59c209$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3117952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No11c201.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…2302backed No60c170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes41c162.5$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1232354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed No48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No57c149.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.965044%22 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c147.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No48c127.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.58844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed No49c122.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a2…e032backed Yes39c119.85$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c102$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1614454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed43…9f9cbacked No51c97.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes52c96.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.942634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No49c96.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.253240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda39…b4aabacked Yes43c91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c85.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes53c81.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.814153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5914959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No63c80.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e7…b9a1backed No48c69.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes63c69.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.32680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick60cpaid+42.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c67.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No27c66.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8221854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d10…7075backed No50c65.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd79…989ebacked No59c63.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.631152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c58.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes55c57.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.923262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x208d…df71backed Yes38c55.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No49c51.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No47c51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.974355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No52c48.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c48.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6423459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No33c46.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.525054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes51c46.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes52c43.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.874944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2214637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes51c39.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.324344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.465149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes53c37.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.728865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5a…8662backed Yes46c32.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.823243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes62c32.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.034868.8%33 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No60c30.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes52c26.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.844953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c25.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5727143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes51c25.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.43580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+75.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5612640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes44c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8813646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…0d7fbacked Yes63c22.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf183…83ccbacked Yes50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No50c21.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.525347.2%25 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103641.7%15 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65054%27 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87955.7%44 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3d5…c693backed Yes53c19.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.311040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes53c19.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.27875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed No56c19.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c16.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.