TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17f3…cbf3backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes38c2,912$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.939518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes1c1,744$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c1,135$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes41c802.31$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.2348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No63c646.92$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.291,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes33c577.64$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.038337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes71c500$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.1813588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes29c470.74$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c455$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.894,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes44c442.61$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.91,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c420.78$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.54,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No62c330.78$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3215570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No62c330.54$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0215669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes30c300$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.572035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c287.49$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.825,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes33c271.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6431748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed No69c261.67$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4110058%58 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf23…3f54backed Yes36c259.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.422623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes34c251$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3423129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes40c248.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.888421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No62c229.77$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.72,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes29c222.91$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.396,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No67c210.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.271,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No51c209.59$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.372,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No61c202.06$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.441,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6018641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.387258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes30c197.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.828847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes37c197.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No60c179.14$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.522,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes40c176.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0357747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c171.08$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No58c167.25$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.072,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No59c163.24$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.632,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c160.77$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.553,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes32c158$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.821,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c155.18$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.644,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No61c154$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8180560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes33c153.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…32c1backed No64c153.47$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.531070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No60c146.24$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.752,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No28c135.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.861,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No53c126.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0423941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c123.11$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.653,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes46c120.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No59c120.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.122,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No62c115.17$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.112,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No57c108$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6813254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No56c103.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.332,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes42c102$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.691,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e1…4995backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396346%29 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.89425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x032f…8d74backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes35c99.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No63c99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4817859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c98.53$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.039,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes29c98.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7247538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No59c96.23$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.612,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes35c95.59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.531,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No58c95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes32c93.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.987850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes39c89.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2381855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No55c85.78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c85.02$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.311,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c84.17$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.383,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes36c80.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4414060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes50c80.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.012429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No61c77.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked No63c74.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.641872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No57c73.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No62c73.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.148655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes60c70.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1612350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No61c67.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.132,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.353,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes35c61.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed Yes41c60.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255048%24 W · 26 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes33c59.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No62c58.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.318365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No58c57.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.592,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No67c57.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0527169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes33c53.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6814957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No54c52.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes41c51.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.43253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c51.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.847,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes41c48.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c48.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked Yes38c46.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes36c45.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.383135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No63c44.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.721272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.