TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes15c3,826$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,263.869518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes15c1,777$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ee…807abacked No74c1,088$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.48955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick73cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes19c674.89$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.581,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No77c669.6$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.991,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes34c587.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.998337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes14c531.11$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.658421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes10c525.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.651,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No76c450.35$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.1157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes38c447.67$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.8588628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed No78c400$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.719425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed No40c341.8$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3212629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes26c340.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.7757747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes7c322.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3013,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes14c312.45$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.7367633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No74c311.25$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.822,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes26c287.84$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5913238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed No75c276.76$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.576349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes22c273$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5227047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes40c272.88$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.8815570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No27c267.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes16c248.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.362,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No79c214.08$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No31c203.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.122,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c202.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.731,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes22c201.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8413746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes16c200.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.9828847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No71c177.74$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.761,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No79c176$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x17f3…cbf3backed No27c175.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No73c172.8$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.62,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes7c171$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0394919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No64c162.03$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.282,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes75c157.91$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0413588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No57c147.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.792,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c144.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes16c128$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1084540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…32c1backed Yes43c126.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.951070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No46c126.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8763538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes16c126.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.139728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No66c122.73$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.452,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No76c122$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.994,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No77c121.46$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.262,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c118.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.372,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c109.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.67,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No68c105.65$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.522,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c105$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked No78c101$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7813254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes50c100.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.965945.8%27 W · 32 L-10.0wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No67c100.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.422,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes18c99.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9934831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No69c99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3117859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Yes31c99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes26c93.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.191136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+75.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes31c90.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.183253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab5c…c6f3backed Yes11c90.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.912556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes23c88.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3128344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes17c86.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.961,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes28c80.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4520739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No72c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.872042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked Yes63c79.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.711872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked Yes14c73.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.321833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No79c73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.842,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No37c72.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.162,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes18c72.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.844,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes20c68.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes22c63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9311947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No56c60.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.825853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes20c58.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.287345.2%33 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No75c57.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8616552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No70c57.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7321272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No74c54.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.542,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No77c51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No68c49.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9714372%103 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No54c49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.272,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No71c41.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.986,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.642555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c37.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No73c34.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4719861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1046…a534backed No78c31.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No76c31.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8615347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d6…b907backed No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf8a…627cbacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No77c28.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7821847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83dd…1517backed Yes68c27.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.517957%45 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c6…ec7abacked No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…bc63backed No79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f9e…f411backed No79c25.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x290a…0994backed Yes40c25.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes41c24.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.413732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…7946backed Yes69c20.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.280962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No77c19.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a73…9913backed Yes61c18.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25448.1%26 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.