Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce58b46c86f7a72c3f553ba77775068fd5056c95da566f23066b401b5b218390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 15c | 3,826$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,263.86 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,777$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.9 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 74c | 1,088$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 674.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 669.6$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 34c | 587.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.99 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 14c | 531.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.65 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 10c | 525.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.65 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 76c | 450.35$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.11 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 38c | 447.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.85 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed No | 78c | 400$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.71 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 40c | 341.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 340.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 322.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 312.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.73 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 311.25$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 26c | 287.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.59 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 75c | 276.76$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 22c | 273$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.52 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 40c | 272.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 267.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 248.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 214.08$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 203.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 202.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 22c | 201.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 16c | 200.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 177.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 176$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…cbf3backed No | 27c | 175.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 172.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 7c | 171$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 162.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 75c | 157.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 147.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 144.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 16c | 128$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed Yes | 43c | 126.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 46c | 126.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 16c | 126.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 122.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 122$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 121.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 118.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 109.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 105.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 50c | 100.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 100.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Yes | 31c | 99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes | 26c | 93.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 31c | 90.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 23c | 88.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 86.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 28c | 80.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked Yes | 63c | 79.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 14c | 73.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 72.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 68.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 56c | 60.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 20c | 58.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 75c | 57.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 57.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 54.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 68c | 49.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 41.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 73c | 34.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…a534backed No | 78c | 31.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…b907backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…627cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 77c | 28.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 68c | 27.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…ec7abacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9e…f411backed No | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 40c | 25.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…7946backed Yes | 69c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…9913backed Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.