TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,107 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes1c3,190$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No62c653.81$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.621,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes38c485.68$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2943932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No62c458.47$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.114,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes20c399.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.29425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes53c374.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c305.84$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes24c268.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No64c267.52$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.051,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes39c264$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9620452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes28c256.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked No78c255.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9713746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes39c255.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No79c249.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.687258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c249.93$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.444,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes56c212.25$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1254143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c211.6$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.516,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes14c205.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.472,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes37c202.26$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.971,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c197.4$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.052,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes38c194.2$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.038421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No66c190.96$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.128847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes60c188.98$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c188.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No57c183.05$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes29c179.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.529146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ff…0d46backed Yes70c179.35$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.561838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed No56c174.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.779518.9%18 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes20c170.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3313531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No55c165.75$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.431,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No69c154$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No64c153.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.752,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85db…1423backed Yes47c149.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.826666.7%44 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c145.19$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.284,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes37c142.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2114060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001c…e5edbacked Yes52c140.03$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.452250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes39c139.8$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c139.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.313,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No55c139.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.162,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No50c116.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.131,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No62c115.86$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.412,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No57c115.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.352,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes33c110.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.891,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes47c106.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No58c104.39$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.762,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No74c103.94$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.926750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c102.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb3df…463dbacked Yes35c101.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.449456.4%53 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes23c101$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.234,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2380735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5046232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2734831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032f…8d74backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6293…675fbacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes44c98.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4447538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes41c95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes26c91.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5346452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c89.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.045,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed No67c88.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.878337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No50c85.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.642,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes24c84.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3079…7b77backed Yes47c79.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.592433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes34c79.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9430834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c76.84$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No62c76.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.712,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes25c75.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked Yes70c71.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.71,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9517524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes25c69.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2442555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No38c68.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.471,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes24c67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No69c63.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3115666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83dd…1517backed No79c63.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.27957%45 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c59.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.961,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No58c59.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.112,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No57c59.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes34c58.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.757856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes54c57.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.619166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c56.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked Yes45c56.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.487251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes40c56.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes41c55.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.016949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes36c53.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4120739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c52.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.815,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x038c…b4e0backed Yes56c49.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.783259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No62c49.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.972,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes42c44.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6642948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes29c43.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No79c42.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.931,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes46c42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No64c41.58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1240862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes40c41.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.525342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes48c39.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab3e…18efbacked Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No61c37.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.333,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.