Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a76ca2474c0c2be81386e750582962afdb21c87e93f6240d1ef89601ae65394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 31c | 7,596$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.53 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 29c | 4,700$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.5 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 23c | 2,446$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.45 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 51c | 1,566$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.6 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Down | 23c | 1,256$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.57 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 74c | 712.56$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 56c | 405.86$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Down | 57c | 349.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 60c | 303.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Down | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 51c | 195.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Up | 53c | 194.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 16c | 174.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…2d08backed Up | 58c | 144.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Up | 50c | 122.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Up | 56c | 114$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Up | 45c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e827backed Up | 49c | 97.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Down | 52c | 89.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 53c | 86.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Up | 48c | 51.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…c042backed Up | 59c | 51.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa352…dd3cbacked Up | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…33d4backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Up | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Down | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…9132backed Up | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.