TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,830
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,830 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes28c3,040$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.211,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes34c1,279$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43848331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes2c999.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9743441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c989.14$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.351,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes32c543.68$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0424141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c517.15$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes21c438.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.585050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed No78c395.97$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.155048%24 W · 26 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes32c390.34$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7434533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c382.28$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No70c377.23$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1750860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes32c373.73$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4313238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes26c356.73$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.738337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Yes30c350.68$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.573116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c329.83$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.195,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c317.24$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.64,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes32c310$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No72c306.33$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.855969.5%41 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes23c299.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6912629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes31c288.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.135135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No80c288$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.853,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No66c278$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3672042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No69c266.38$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.471,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c265.66$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.374,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x107c…ab15backed Yes35c259.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.643917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No71c249.4$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.245,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No67c244.98$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8238138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes32c241.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2512530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes21c225.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.284134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c213.4$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.835,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c202.28$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.063,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4427328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes21c189.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c175.5$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.641,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c166.9$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.332,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes30c162.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes30c162.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4563143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes32c157.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.691,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No76c157$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6841966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No71c156.14$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.92,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No70c150.88$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5614957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes29c147.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.213,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c144.3$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.582,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No69c141.04$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.532,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No69c140.75$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.252,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe44b…bf9bbacked No71c140.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.152378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c136.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No73c135.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.391,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes31c134.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5628847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes21c133.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6518328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes27c132.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9117524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes33c128.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5316437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No71c126.18$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.882,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No68c125.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.062,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No69c123.35$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.832,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c116.79$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.152,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No74c116.63$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4525784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes34c115.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.172010%2 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c115.35$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.72,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No63c113.95$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1631748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No68c108.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c105.95$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.924,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No74c105.09$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c103$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.999,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3079…7b77backed Yes39c102.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.112433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No71c102.05$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.032,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032f…8d74backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa282…8700backed Yes27c99.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes30c97.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.127258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No70c95.44$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.862,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No69c87.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes36c84.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4920739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes39c84.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No68c82.93$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.162,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes28c81.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.797035.7%25 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes37c81.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.185742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes26c80.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.918655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes17c73.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.442,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…5db6backed No77c72.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.751968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked No69c71.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.261127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes32c68.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No69c68.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0521272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes28c64.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes22c61.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.444938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes32c60.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.245225%13 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No66c60.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8268867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.315176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc55f…9475backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes21c59.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Yes37c58.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.683,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No64c57.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.022,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes33c57.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.