TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,487 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40a…e4a2backed No75c1,046$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.271,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes11c953.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.8643441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes19c645.45$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.121,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c515.94$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes17c452.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.633,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes14c431.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.875,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes23c406.3$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.358337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes16c399.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.582317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes15c363.79$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.662,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes21c359.05$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.6643932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes53c350.74$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.596750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c344.51$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…cac7backed Yes29c339.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.071631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes17c321.68$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1272042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes72c316.43$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8713588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes28c258.68$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.9413238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed Yes8c250$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2303525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes8c242.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.819728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No71c207.04$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes21c205.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.12,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3439427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes9c200$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18315717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No73c195.65$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes11c180.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.72,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No60c177.45$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8663323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No80c158.5$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.351,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No76c156.94$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.842,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No79c150.83$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.344,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c145$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c141.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked Yes11c131.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.511833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No71c129.66$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.041,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed No15c126.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.544134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes17c122.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9221847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c121.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.692,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes21c119.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No76c115.91$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.052,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Yes23c109.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.183116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes49c107.32$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No77c107$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes24c106.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.097035.7%25 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes24c104.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.852,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c103.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.874,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes15c100.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4914833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7647538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8218045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c99.52$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.823,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5888…1109backed Yes16c91.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.932360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+67.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes22c91.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1414932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No76c88.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.662,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes19c86.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9129927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes17c84.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes18c84.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.151136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+75.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes19c78.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9112927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes16c76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9617524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes17c74.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.738655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c74.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.454,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes16c66.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes21c65.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8420739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes20c65.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.383,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes23c64.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.945135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c62.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.49,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No70c60.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes41c55.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.573,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes22c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes22c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.911525.2%29 W · 86 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No48c53.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9240862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.36,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No80c48.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.591,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No78c37.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.425358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No78c37.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1128163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dec…001ebacked Yes60c36.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.615058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e6…beb0backed No76c27.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No78c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed No71c24.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5518328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No78c23.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0849359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c21.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.294,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.719769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.722,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a40…67abbacked No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161040%4 W · 6 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick76cpaid-47.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed No73c18.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7110058%58 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab5c…c6f3backed No76c13.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.