Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc51d47bf151a65339fabf630800e7551872424878ec2ba54727ec99ec9508db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 2,173$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,733$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.37 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,238$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 12c | 1,147$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 5c | 997.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 80c | 651.42$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 10c | 642.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 15c | 630.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 618.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 20c | 574.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 4c | 437.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 15c | 411.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 371.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 318.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 13c | 291.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 262.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 13c | 167.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 155.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 77c | 139.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 24c | 129.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 22c | 128.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 10c | 124.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 75c | 100.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…b89ebacked Yes | 11c | 93.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 22c | 82.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 16c | 76.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…bb96backed Yes | 22c | 54.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.