Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d221abfe8c8cd0effa7ed4ad0f3aeaf234c8d1734df172c3abb28cbc38f6799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 33c | 1,190$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.26 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 51c | 999.91$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.17 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 950.17$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.75 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 43c | 897.56$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.1 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 638.33$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 51c | 579.64$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 489$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 412.31$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 55c | 316.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 63c | 303.37$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 49c | 295.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.85 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 52c | 264.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 56c | 255.83$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 251.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…b48dbacked Yes | 41c | 241.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 37c | 231$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 224.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 221.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 214$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 213.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 203.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 201.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 185.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 44c | 181.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 179.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 166.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 161.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 48c | 159.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 64c | 156.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 53c | 149$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 52c | 145.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 142.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 65c | 136$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 129$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 128.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 122.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 61c | 120.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 115.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked No | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 111.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 36c | 110.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 109.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 107.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 32c | 104.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 50c | 103.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 102.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 44c | 101.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 97.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 88.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 45c | 86.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 84.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 79.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 78.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 75.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 61c | 69.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 68.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 55c | 63.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 56c | 60.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 60c | 60.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked No | 70c | 56.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 57c | 56.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 56c | 56.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 55.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 55.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 53.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 53.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 52.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 64c | 51.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 50.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 71c | 48.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 48.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked No | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 45.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.