Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ab1f8092f3e263320a104113a9afe11b09413617238888c779426cbcc3562a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,256$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 57c | 374.1$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 267.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 253.44$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 41c | 201.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 184.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 174.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 37c | 152.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 62.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 44c | 58.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 54.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 54.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 49.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 60c | 46.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 54c | 44.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 38.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 35.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 33.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 32.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 30.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…a18ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 56c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.