Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de7dd47b0f774ac91b673f72d648c06c399021c4cb9fe5914a3094ee1b40176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 398.41$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.93 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 324.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 197.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 167.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 32c | 167.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked No | 9c | 140.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 36c | 135$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 127.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 61c | 110.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 14c | 108.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 100.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…70c5backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 78c | 93.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked No | 31c | 92.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 30c | 86.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 83.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 77.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked No | 21c | 74.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 60.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 64c | 59.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 54.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 52.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 51.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 39c | 51.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 50.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 48.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 46.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 29c | 46.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 44.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 73c | 41.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 31.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 65c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 36c | 28.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 42c | 23.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 73c | 18.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3189…562dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.