Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb605dd9d60f67980521a5516dc484d6eb3c28fbb7df91a89b635b3fdf61eb7e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 0c | 19,604$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 1,821$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 814.16$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 528.61$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 442.64$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 70c | 432.36$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.37 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 53c | 422.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…3f77backed Yes | 56c | 391.35$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 59c | 362.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 40c | 356.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 18c | 353.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 351.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 69c | 337.1$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 53c | 304.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 63c | 290.74$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe1…89cdbacked Yes | 46c | 286.91$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 246.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 55c | 238.54$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 39c | 234$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 224.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 52c | 207.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 204$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 51c | 197.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 44c | 189.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 45c | 182.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 165.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 156.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 153.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 51c | 152.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 47c | 147.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 146.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 61c | 146.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 141.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 135.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 45c | 131.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 49c | 130.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 129$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 128.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 120.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 31c | 119.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 114.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 114.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 109.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked No | 50c | 105.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 56c | 105.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 103.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 100.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…8d74backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 62c | 97.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 96.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed No | 44c | 91.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42b…17d7backed Yes | 49c | 88.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 87.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 83.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 83.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 79.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 79.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 42c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 76.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 74.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 65c | 71.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 67.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 61c | 67.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed No | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 37c | 65.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 47c | 62.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked No | 69c | 57.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed No | 49c | 50.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…022dbacked Yes | 65c | 50.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 49.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 53c | 48.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 53c | 46.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 42.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…d39fbacked No | 59c | 42.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 47c | 41.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 44c | 41.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 40.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 37c | 40.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 39.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.