TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x107c…ab15backed Yes0c19,604$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.093917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes46c1,821$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8431,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No50c814.16$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.971,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No51c528.61$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.164,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No46c442.64$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed No70c432.36$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.372347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes53c422.05$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9924141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc466…3f77backed Yes56c391.35$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7914…8ba1backed Yes59c362.95$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.231643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes40c356.82$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.168421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes18c353.68$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.218328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c351.77$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes69c337.1$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2335225%13 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes53c304.24$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16013746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No63c290.74$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.636750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fe1…89cdbacked Yes46c286.91$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No51c246.42$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.181,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No55c238.54$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5515570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes39c234$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.264134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c224.73$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes52c207.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.942714.8%4 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No57c204$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.723,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1063231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes51c197.08$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.955135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No44c189.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7474926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes45c182.38$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.554431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No46c165.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.612,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No43c156.09$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.552,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes57c153.62$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.645,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd969…0932backed Yes51c152.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.154134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No47c147.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.058655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c146.93$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.854,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c8b…eb78backed No61c146.44$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.441788.2%15 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick68cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c141.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.714,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes51c135.58$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.357747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No45c131.03$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3742547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes49c130.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.382,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No57c129$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes16c128.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.26,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No69c120.01$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8825784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.627328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No31c119.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3472042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c115$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.832,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes39c114.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.931,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No47c114.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.242,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c109.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.73,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1874…594fbacked No50c105.55$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes56c105.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.720739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No52c103.53$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.892,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c102$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.347538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No47c100.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.451,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5234831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032f…8d74backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes62c97.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c96.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.162,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes51c96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.881,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed No44c91.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.161346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc42b…17d7backed Yes49c88.79$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No35c87.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.111,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No53c83.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.131,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes47c83.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No36c79.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.47,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No52c79.21$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes42c79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.887057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No44c76.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.152,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes67c74.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6854154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No65c71.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9898236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No54c67.21$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.862,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes61c67.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a25…4e62backed No45c66.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.891080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+42.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes37c65.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No51c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.54,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes47c62.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.852,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked No69c57.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.951872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked No58c53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.17958.2%46 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed No49c50.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.683775.7%28 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeacb…022dbacked Yes65c50.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.611163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No40c49.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes53c48.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6918240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes56c47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.322934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No53c46.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes50c42.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.563253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0179…d39fbacked No59c42.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No47c41.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1943559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed No44c41.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.133551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes60c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c40.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes37c40.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7815630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd069…9599backed Yes49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf03b…34fdbacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205453.7%29 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes37c39.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.