Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe9119688040121e38a2b287462836a779388ce3ff7d2a25aebdf9d212113db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 18c | 1,106$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.25 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 811.86$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 718.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.01 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 71c | 599.15$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 552.43$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 446.32$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.23 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 300.3$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 278.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 257.6$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 250.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 247.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 64c | 234.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 220.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 211.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 15c | 207.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 18c | 199.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 22c | 195.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 192.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 185.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 29c | 180.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 58c | 172.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 170.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 46c | 168.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 163.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 22c | 162.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 15c | 162.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 70c | 161.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 58c | 160.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 59c | 154.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 153.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 66c | 151.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 24c | 142.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.74 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 141.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 141.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 138$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 34c | 137.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 24c | 134.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 74c | 132.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 132.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 129$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 124.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 116.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked No | 21c | 114.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 109.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 108.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 107$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 20c | 100.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 100.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked Yes | 40c | 99.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 58c | 99.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 96.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 95.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…4e69backed No | 74c | 94.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 31c | 93.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 88.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 86.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes | 20c | 81.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 79.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 16c | 76.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 69.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 33c | 68.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 67.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe1…89cdbacked No | 63c | 64.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked No | 25c | 58.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 57.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 53c | 56.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 56c | 53.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 51.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 47c | 48.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 57c | 45.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 43c | 44.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 38.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 59c | 36.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 35.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 44c | 35.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 30.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 61c | 27.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 25.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.