TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes18c1,106$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.2548331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No72c811.86$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.781,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes19c718.1$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.011,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes71c599.15$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8915570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c552.43$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.024,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes32c446.32$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c300.3$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.914,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes47c300$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.682347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No37c278.2$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.842,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c257.6$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c250.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.366,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes50c247.41$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.4757747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed No64c234.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505048%24 W · 26 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes11c220.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.061,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes7c220$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No12c211.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes15c207.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.257258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x52d8…b6a8backed Yes21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1582317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ea…08e0backed No78c199.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.993661.1%22 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes18c199.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes22c195.78$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7824141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c192.33$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.844,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No52c185.45$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes29c180.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.994134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7914…8ba1backed Yes58c172.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c170.32$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.513,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No46c168.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No36c163.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.962,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes22c162.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.932714.8%4 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes15c162.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.331679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…5db6backed No70c161.62$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.681968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes58c160.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.748421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No59c154.25$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c153.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.152,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes66c151.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.223452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes24c142.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7412530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No43c141.79$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.472,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No31c141.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.32,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c138$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes34c137.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes24c134.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.715028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked Yes74c132.92$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347958.2%46 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c132.89$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No53c129$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3780560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c124.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No75c116.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.385,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No21c114.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.831717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5888…1109backed Yes12c110$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.22360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+67.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes36c109.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6120739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No61c108.23$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.512,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes31c107$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.647538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes20c100.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.45135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes23c100.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes17c99.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.996349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked Yes40c99.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.31872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed Yes58c99.13$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.183775.7%28 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c96.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.183,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No68c95.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0320569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.85,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e4…4e69backed No74c94.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.031080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes31c93.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.737057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No76c88.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.772,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c86.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes20c81.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c79.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.184,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes16c76.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9621272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No77c69.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8179947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes33c68.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8328344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes24c67.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.974,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe1…89cdbacked No63c64.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.13,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f07…7573backed Yes18c59.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.012718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd758…b0ecbacked No25c58.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No75c57.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.352,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes53c56.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.564235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes56c53.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.952,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes21c51.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4161629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58f…cb99backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.834935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No47c48.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4974926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed No57c45.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3918328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes43c44.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1643559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No55c41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.492,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No54c38.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.591,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No67c38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.461,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No59c36.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4715347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No79c35.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6181558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes44c35.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.719349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.855853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.364,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No65c30.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1540862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.240162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No61c27.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.699262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes44c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.242231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No75c25.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0671057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.