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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b20…bc23backed No60c918$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes36c573.64$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.511546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes35c572.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes32c380.15$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.863423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes22c319.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.718524.7%21 W · 64 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e82…8272backed Yes31c318.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c301.56$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0629658.8%174 W · 122 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10810941.3%45 W · 64 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No51c294$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0633648.5%163 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c288.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c220.38$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.815159.6%90 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No64c219.1$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.612055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c216.39$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9125151.8%130 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes38c215.61$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.943925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed No51c210.17$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed No79c199.3$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.785653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes19c194.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.443351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes14c193.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes36c188.65$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.753030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No71c186.78$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.675054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes12c168.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2818342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes16c145.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.913212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No70c137.15$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.152133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No64c135.15$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6612039.2%47 W · 73 L-13.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c134.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41,34444.3%595 W · 749 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c126.6$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6224560.4%148 W · 97 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes12c119.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes36c116.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes26c106.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.671822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes29c102.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5713140.5%53 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes20c101.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4415141.7%63 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1711545.2%52 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.185066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x691d…599fbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb58d…1f46backed No74c96.39$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes18c93.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8215421.4%33 W · 121 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed No55c90.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.224045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No67c87$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.714240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes26c85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.452777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes18c81.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02e9…9a18backed Yes42c73.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c69.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5155151.2%282 W · 269 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8741152.3%215 W · 196 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes38c62.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6920863.9%133 W · 75 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.634355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes39c55.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7813646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes45c54.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.710721.5%23 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c53.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7843249.1%212 W · 220 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No77c52.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.217160.6%43 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes38c52.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.225949.2%29 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed No71c50.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7caa…f4efbacked Yes25c50.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2117338.2%66 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes32c49.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No31c43.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2226732.6%87 W · 180 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No77c43.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed No66c42.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No62c38.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.524862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.763857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes33c37.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.392010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No56c35.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.523158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes51c34.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.357546.7%35 W · 40 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1219769.5%137 W · 60 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes38c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes38c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.263122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid+4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a9…6f76backed Yes49c29.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes34c29.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No70c28.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.724374.4%32 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No60c26.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.838739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No80c24.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0215546.5%72 W · 83 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No77c23.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3717651.1%90 W · 86 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No69c23.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1516254.9%89 W · 73 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No53c22.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.645170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No66c22.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No48c21.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.234564.4%29 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c21.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2635854.7%196 W · 162 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.48353%44 W · 39 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No73c19.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.264557.8%26 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No73c15.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.175066%33 W · 17 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.